Oct 27th - The world is on track to hit 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100

 The world is on track to hit 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 despite stronger emissions reduction targets, the United Nations has said on the eve of global climate talks.

Key points:

1. We need to effectively halve the world's annual emissions by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5-2C
2. 2021 is expected to be a record-high year for global emissions as economies attempt to bounce back from COVID-19
3. Pacific islands see the Glasgow conference as a "last-ditch" effort to keep warming to 1.5C

The annual UN Emissions Gap report, released today, compares our current trajectory with where we need to be to keep warming to well below 2C, as per the Paris Agreement.

Despite 120 countries strengthening their emissions reduction targets as of September 30 this year, the report authors said this was still not enough to avoid dangerous warming.

To get on the "least cost pathway" to limiting warming to between 1.5C and 2C, they said the targets needed to cut a further 28 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases per year, beyond that

pledged by the current 2030 commitments.

This effectively amounted to halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the authors said.

The report projected 2021 emissions had bounced back to just shy of 2019's record levels.

But Mark Howden from the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute said the data used was a few months old and he thought 2021 emissions would actually hit a new record high.

"It's a bit sad, but I think they've actually understated it," Professor Howden said.

"We've seen a firming up of emissions that are going to be higher post-COVID than before."

A separate report from the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released yesterday, found that global average atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations hit a record high of 413.2 parts per million in 2020 — higher than at any other time in the past 2 million years.

Today's report comes as countries prepare to head to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, which has been dubbed the world's "last best chance" to cap warming below 1.5-2C.