Oct 21st 2021 - Fossil fuel production to soar in face of emissions pledges, United Nations report says

 

Fossil fuel production to soar in face of emissions pledges, United Nations report says

Key points:

• More than 130 countries have announced plans to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050
• Those commitments aren't matched by plans when it comes to fossil fuel production, the report shows
• The report also criticises Australia for using taxpayers' money to support fossil fuel industries.
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• Despite climate targets being ramped up, the world is set to increase the production of fossil fuels until 2040 and beyond, according to the United Nations Environment Program.

• Using the projections of governments around the world, the UN report noted that fossil fuels would be generated at a rate almost three times higher than what's needed to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

  "The research is clear," said Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report.

  "Global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5C."

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  Putting net zero out of reach

  More than 130 countries have announced plans to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050, but the report shows those commitments aren't matched by plans when it comes to fossil fuel production.

  "This discrepancy points to the urgent need for net-zero pledges to be translated into action to wind down fossil fuel production," said Mans Nilsson, from the Stockholm Environment Institute in his foreword to the report.

  This discrepancy — the chasm between countries' projected fossil fuel production and the level needed to cap global warming at certain levels — is called the 'production gap'.

  The report measures the impact of extracted fossil fuels by how much carbon dioxide they would emit when burned.

  According to the analysis, global carbon dioxide emissions of about 19 gigatonnes per year (GtCO2/yr) by 2040 would be consistent with limiting warming to 2C. For the ideal 1.5C — which is the preferred goal under the Paris Agreement — it would be about 12 GtCO2/yr.

  But actual global production is estimated to reach 35 GtCO2/yr or more by 2040, based on countries' plans and projections.

  Compiling plans and projections from around the world, the report found that by 2030, the world is expected to produce 110 per cent more than what is possible if we want to limit warming to 1.5C.

  That discrepancy grows to 190 per cent by 2040.

  The figures also well exceed the hard limit in the Paris Agreement of 2C.

  By 2030, the world is expected to exceed that limit by 45 per cent, and 89 per cent by 2040.

  Australian government funding fossil fuels

  Despite Australia's small population, it is one of the world's heaviest hitters when you take into account the emissions caused by fossil fuels produced onshore and exported overseas.

  Looking at emissions that way, Australia is the sixth-worst polluter in the world. We are the biggest exporter of coal and the world's second-biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

  "It is imperative that fossil fuel-producing nations recognise their role and responsibility in closing the production gap and steering us towards a safe climate future," Mr Nilsson said.

• According to the report, the production gap around the world is exacerbated by government funding.

  It found that since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, G20 governments have poured more than $US300 billion ($400 billion) into the fossil fuel sector — more than has been put into clean energy.

  The report singles out Australia for its support for fossil fuels, including its "gas-led recovery", which involves subsidising large new gas basins.

  "Australia is still the dinosaur," said Malte Meinshausen, a professor of climate science at the University of Melbourne.

  "We still have programs where taxpayers' [money] goes largely into fossil fuels, and the gas-led recovery is a prime example."

• Australia's production of coal is forecast to rise 4 per cent by 2030. Gas production is forecast to increase by 12 per cent and oil by 32 per cent.

  UN Environment Program executive director Inger Andersen said the Glasgow climate conference next month was a crucial moment for the world to reverse this trend.

  "At COP26 and beyond, the world's governments must take immediate steps to address the production gap, while ensuring that this transition occurs in a just and equitable manner," she said.

  Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said Australia had reduced emissions faster than "every other major commodity exporting nation in the world".

  "Our gas-fired recovery is one of the key elements to ensure Australians are not faced with the energy issue occurring in Europe and the UK right now," he said.

  "As you have more and more renewables come into your electricity system, you need to have the gas to provide the balance needed to keep prices low and the lights on."