Oct 31st 2021 A decade left before we breach 1.5C

 

A decade left before we breach 1.5C

But this year's ratchet mechanism has even more significance.

In August, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its starkest warning yet.

It found that on our current trajectory, we would heat the world by 1.5C by about 2030 — less than a decade from now.

According to the UN, the current targets will result in the world warming by 2.7C by the end of the century.

For that reason, countries like Australia — that have so far failed to lift their 2030 targets — this year have been the focus of sustained criticism. 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-31/cop26-is-our-best-chance-to-stop-global-warming/100567010

Oct 27th - The world is on track to hit 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100

 The world is on track to hit 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 despite stronger emissions reduction targets, the United Nations has said on the eve of global climate talks.

Key points:

1. We need to effectively halve the world's annual emissions by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5-2C
2. 2021 is expected to be a record-high year for global emissions as economies attempt to bounce back from COVID-19
3. Pacific islands see the Glasgow conference as a "last-ditch" effort to keep warming to 1.5C

The annual UN Emissions Gap report, released today, compares our current trajectory with where we need to be to keep warming to well below 2C, as per the Paris Agreement.

Despite 120 countries strengthening their emissions reduction targets as of September 30 this year, the report authors said this was still not enough to avoid dangerous warming.

To get on the "least cost pathway" to limiting warming to between 1.5C and 2C, they said the targets needed to cut a further 28 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases per year, beyond that

pledged by the current 2030 commitments.

This effectively amounted to halving global greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, the authors said.

The report projected 2021 emissions had bounced back to just shy of 2019's record levels.

But Mark Howden from the Australian National University's Climate Change Institute said the data used was a few months old and he thought 2021 emissions would actually hit a new record high.

"It's a bit sad, but I think they've actually understated it," Professor Howden said.

"We've seen a firming up of emissions that are going to be higher post-COVID than before."

A separate report from the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released yesterday, found that global average atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations hit a record high of 413.2 parts per million in 2020 — higher than at any other time in the past 2 million years.

Today's report comes as countries prepare to head to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow, which has been dubbed the world's "last best chance" to cap warming below 1.5-2C.

Oct 26 2021 - Greenhouse gas concentrations hit record high last year, UN reports ahead of Glasgow COP26 climate summit

 Greenhouse gas concentrations hit a record last year 2020 and the world is "way off track" on capping rising temperatures, the United Nations says, ahead of climate talks in Glasgow aimed at averting dangerous levels of global warming.

A report by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) showed carbon dioxide levels surged to 413.2 parts per million in 2020, rising more than the average rate over the last decade despite a temporary dip in emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said the current rate of increase in heat-trapping gases would result in temperature rises "far in excess" of the 2015 Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average this century.

"We are way off track," he said.

"We need to revisit our industrial, energy and transport systems and whole way of life."

Mr Taalas then called for a "dramatic increase" in commitments at the COP26 conference beginning on Sunday.

The Glasgow climate talks have been labelled the world's last best chance to cap global warming at the 1.5-2 degrees Celsius upper limit set out in the Paris Agreement.

Oct 21st 2021 - Fossil fuel production to soar in face of emissions pledges, United Nations report says

 

Fossil fuel production to soar in face of emissions pledges, United Nations report says

Key points:

• More than 130 countries have announced plans to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050
• Those commitments aren't matched by plans when it comes to fossil fuel production, the report shows
• The report also criticises Australia for using taxpayers' money to support fossil fuel industries.
• 
  
• Despite climate targets being ramped up, the world is set to increase the production of fossil fuels until 2040 and beyond, according to the United Nations Environment Program.

• Using the projections of governments around the world, the UN report noted that fossil fuels would be generated at a rate almost three times higher than what's needed to stop global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

  "The research is clear," said Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report.

  "Global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5C."

• 

  Putting net zero out of reach

  More than 130 countries have announced plans to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050, but the report shows those commitments aren't matched by plans when it comes to fossil fuel production.

  "This discrepancy points to the urgent need for net-zero pledges to be translated into action to wind down fossil fuel production," said Mans Nilsson, from the Stockholm Environment Institute in his foreword to the report.

  This discrepancy — the chasm between countries' projected fossil fuel production and the level needed to cap global warming at certain levels — is called the 'production gap'.

  The report measures the impact of extracted fossil fuels by how much carbon dioxide they would emit when burned.

  According to the analysis, global carbon dioxide emissions of about 19 gigatonnes per year (GtCO2/yr) by 2040 would be consistent with limiting warming to 2C. For the ideal 1.5C — which is the preferred goal under the Paris Agreement — it would be about 12 GtCO2/yr.

  But actual global production is estimated to reach 35 GtCO2/yr or more by 2040, based on countries' plans and projections.

  Compiling plans and projections from around the world, the report found that by 2030, the world is expected to produce 110 per cent more than what is possible if we want to limit warming to 1.5C.

  That discrepancy grows to 190 per cent by 2040.

  The figures also well exceed the hard limit in the Paris Agreement of 2C.

  By 2030, the world is expected to exceed that limit by 45 per cent, and 89 per cent by 2040.

  Australian government funding fossil fuels

  Despite Australia's small population, it is one of the world's heaviest hitters when you take into account the emissions caused by fossil fuels produced onshore and exported overseas.

  Looking at emissions that way, Australia is the sixth-worst polluter in the world. We are the biggest exporter of coal and the world's second-biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

  "It is imperative that fossil fuel-producing nations recognise their role and responsibility in closing the production gap and steering us towards a safe climate future," Mr Nilsson said.

• According to the report, the production gap around the world is exacerbated by government funding.

  It found that since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, G20 governments have poured more than $US300 billion ($400 billion) into the fossil fuel sector — more than has been put into clean energy.

  The report singles out Australia for its support for fossil fuels, including its "gas-led recovery", which involves subsidising large new gas basins.

  "Australia is still the dinosaur," said Malte Meinshausen, a professor of climate science at the University of Melbourne.

  "We still have programs where taxpayers' [money] goes largely into fossil fuels, and the gas-led recovery is a prime example."

• Australia's production of coal is forecast to rise 4 per cent by 2030. Gas production is forecast to increase by 12 per cent and oil by 32 per cent.

  UN Environment Program executive director Inger Andersen said the Glasgow climate conference next month was a crucial moment for the world to reverse this trend.

  "At COP26 and beyond, the world's governments must take immediate steps to address the production gap, while ensuring that this transition occurs in a just and equitable manner," she said.

  Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said Australia had reduced emissions faster than "every other major commodity exporting nation in the world".

  "Our gas-fired recovery is one of the key elements to ensure Australians are not faced with the energy issue occurring in Europe and the UK right now," he said.

  "As you have more and more renewables come into your electricity system, you need to have the gas to provide the balance needed to keep prices low and the lights on."

9th Oct 2021 - The largest ever battery in the Kimberley was successfully installed at the Broome Boulevard

The largest ever battery in the Kimberley was successfully installed at the Broome Boulevard to support the Broome utility grid during periods of intermittent cloud coverage The operation executed by four local Broome businesses; Gen Off Grid, H&M Tracey, Lift N Rigg & Roadline Civil Contractors

A perfect early Broome morning was the setting for the successful delivery of the Kimberley’s largest battery. The operation executed by four local Broome businesses, the battery was lifted into place by the local Lift'N'Rig team, in support of the GenOffGrid & H&M Tracey installed solar & battery system at the Broome Boulevard.

“The battery system is unique in that its sole purpose is to provide smoothing services for the Broome Grid, ensuring that the 1MW Solar Carpark project does not impact upon the grid stability and thereby also ensuring that the project does not adversely affect the town’s hosting capacity for residential solar”. Tom Straw Project Manager for the GenOffGrid & H&M Tracey JV Broome Boulevard project said. “With a discharge power of up to 1MW, this is the largest battery ever to be deployed in the Kimberley region”.