What Australia's gas-led recovery will mean for the
country's carbon emissions
By national science,
technology and environment reporter Michael Slezak
Posted 24th
Sept 2020 ABC News
An Australia Institute
report estimated hundreds of millions of tonnes of carbon would be emitted
if all of Australia's potential gas projects went ahead.(ABC Southern
Queensland: Nathan Morris)
Australia's economic recovery from COVID-19 will be largely rebuilt on
fossil fuels, according to the Government. Specifically, on gas.
New basins will be opened up. New pipelines will be laid. New
gas-burning power stations will be built.
What will all this mean for climate change and Australia's commitment to
cut emissions?
Much has been said about the new gas hubs, power stations and pipelines.
But emissions from those will be chump change compared to the emissions
that will likely result from the opening up of even a single large gas basin.
The Government is talking about developing five new basins that it will
help fund.
Such a move is a proverbial red rag to conservationists who are fighting to stop
global warming at 2 degrees Celsius and whose mantra for years has been,
"Keep it in the ground".
Take the most advanced of these basins, already backed by the
Government: the Beetaloo sub basin in the Northern Territory.
A clearing in the
Beetaloo basin, with a small well in the centre, is part of gas expLoration in
the region.(ABC News: Jane Bardon)
If developed, government estimates show it could result in as much as 117 million tonnes of
CO2 being added to our emissions each year — almost a
quarter of our current total yearly emissions.
Adding
that to our emissions tally will make meeting Paris targets much harder — and it means we'll
have to find cuts in other areas, which the Government doesn't yet have a plan
for.
Estimates have suggested there's enough gas in the Beetaloo basin
to satisfy Australia's demand for 200 years.
But if we need our emissions to hit net zero in about 30 years, it's
unlikely the demand for gas will last anywhere near that long.
Some big fossil-fuel companies have acknowledged that. BP's latest
modelling suggests there will only be a small increase in the demand for gas if
the world does nothing to combat climate change.
Dozens of potential gas projects
The Government has listed dozens of new gas projects that have been proposed
by industry around Australia.
A report by The Australia Institute, commissioned by the
Australian Conservation Foundation, added up how much greenhouse gas would be
released into the atmosphere if these projects all progressed to their full
potential.
The figure is not realistic since they wouldn't all progress, and of
those that do, not all their gas would be extracted.
But it's indicative of how carbon intensive a gas-led economy could be.
Gas-fired path to
COVID recovery?
The Federal
Government's National COVID Coordination Commission has a lot of gas industry
players involved, and it appears to be showing in its policy recommendations.
Combined with the gas from the Beetaloo
basin, the progressive think tank estimated the potential projects would
result in an average of 332 million tonnes of CO2 being emitted
each year.
That's
about two thirds of our current total emissions.
It's a carbon bubble that would be hard to make up for in other sectors.
The figure combines estimates of the CO2 emitted when the gas is burned,
as well as fugitive emissions of methane — essentially, gas leaks.
But there are also concerns even after gas wells are closed, they might continue to leak
methane into the atmosphere, making future action to stop emissions difficult.
UN report singles out Australia
The dilemma posed by opening up new fossil-fuel reserves has been
analysed by the
United Nations in what's called the
Production Gap Report.
It
notes specifically governments' support of the production of fossil fuels,
including gas, "undercuts efforts, sometimes by these same governments,
to reduce emissions".
Overall,
the report found around the world, countries are planning to produce 50 per
cent more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be needed to limit warming to 2C and
120 per cent more than is consistent with 1.5 degrees.
The planned production
of coal, oil and gas is far greater than what is required to limit climate
change.(Supplied)
Australia
was one of a handful of countries singled out in the report, with the Federal
Government's support of gas and other fossil fuels sharply criticised.
Australia's
proposed fossil-fuel projects represent "one of the world's largest
fossil-fuel expansions", the report said.
"The
rise of hydraulic fracking has also opened the door to discussions on tapping
into the country's vast resources of unconventional gas."
The
report notes that while global coal production needs to drop by about two
thirds by 2030, gas production needs to drop significantly too — by about 20
per cent by 2030 — in order to keep warming at 1.5C.
Under the rules of the Paris agreement, we don't need to worry about the
emissions from much of our coal and gas because it's exported, and
therefore counted in other country's emissions targets.
According
to the UN's report though, the whole world is ramping up production of fossil
fuels, so the question of who will take responsibility for that carbon remains.
Gas vs coal
Federal Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor has also
argued gas produces lower emissions than coal, and using gas instead of coal
will help lower emissions.
"The success of our LNG exports means that we can help lower
global emissions below what they would otherwise have been by up to 27 per cent
of Australia's annual emissions," Mr Taylor said.
The
UN's Production Gap Report dealt with this argument head on, noting increasing
the supply of gas would drive its uptake.
Gas-led recovery
without the $6b price tag
The Government
could simply force Australia's big gas exporters to sell more of what they
already produce at home, argues Ian Verrender.
It
concluded: "The continued rapid expansion of gas supplies and systems
risks locking in a much higher gas trajectory than is consistent with a 1.5
degree Celsius or 2 degree Celsius future."
"Barring
dramatic, unexpected advances in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology,
these declines mean that most of the world's proven fossil-fuel reserves must
be left unburned," the report said.
Making the unexpected happen is something the Government is betting on.
As part of its Technology Investment Roadmap, it's investing in CCS,
which has the potential to bury some of the emissions from these projects
underground.
The world's largest attempt at this is taking place at Chevron's Gorgon
gas project in Western Australia.
The
project planned to offset only 40 per cent of its emissions using CCS —
and it's been plagued with problems and delays, and didn't
capture any carbon for the first three years of its operation.
And,
since the world including Australia, has committed to stopping global warming,
it's hard to see exactly where our domestic gas push is leading.
