Australia's emission targets as of March 2025

The current legislated interim target is 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 (on the way to net zero by 2050).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-15/albanese-government-2035-climate-emissions-target/105771566

 In the year to March this year 2025, Australia's emissions totalled 440 million tonnes — 28 per cent less than in 2005.

On the current trajectory, emissions will be about 36 per cent lower than 2005 by 2030, 43 per cent lower by 2035, and 86 per cent lower by 2050 (not 100 per cent as legislated).

The Climate Change Authority (CCA) in its draft consultation, in which it decreed that 65-75 per cent below 2005 levels was achievable.

At the risk of over-simplifying and pre-empting the CCA's sophisticated, detailed modelling: 65 per cent or less means no carbon tax, 75 per cent or more means carbon tax.

First, Australia's wealth rests to a large extent on fossil fuel exports and the government keeps approving new fossil fuel projects, including last Friday's approval of Woodside's massive North West Shelf gas project.

And second,
many farmers are very unhappy about new transmission lines and wind turbines going on or near their land, which are needed because wind and solar farms are not going where the old coal-fired power stations are.

The approval for the Woodside project is conditional on the North West Shelf operations becoming net zero by 2050, which will mean a huge extra demand for carbon offsets, or Australian Carbon Credit Units.

In fact, if the government announces an ambitious 2035 target this week while maintaining and expanding the nation's fossil fuel infrastructure, the only way there will be enough offsets to achieve it will be if there's also a carbon tax to pay for them.

Economist Ross Garnaut and public policy expert Rod Sims, founders of renewable energy think tank The Superpower Institute, have suggested that a carbon tax be applied to exports as well as domestic use, but Friday's approval of the Woodside project makes it clear that won't happen.

As for the full electrification of the electricity grid needed to achieve net zero by 2050, it will likely either have to be done despite protesting farmers, or through the near-universal adoption of household and business rooftop solar with batteries … or with nuclear power.

Bowen open to carbon tariff, says Australia must 'do more' to hit 2030 climate target but remains on track - 1st June 2025

 

INSIDERS INTERVIEW WITH ENERGY MINISTER CHRIS BOWN

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-01/bowen-open-to-carbon-tariff/105362978

In short: 

Energy Minister Chris Bowen says Australia is "by and large" on track to hit its 2030 emissions goal but concedes the need to "do more", leaving the door open to a carbon tariff on cement and other products pending an expert review.

Mr Bowen said the newly approved North West Shelf expansion would not jeopardise emissions goals because the site was covered by the safeguard mechanism and legally required to ratchet down its own emissions toward net zero.

What's next?

The government will soon decide its 2035 target, subject to the advice of the independent Climate Change Authority, and is bidding to host the next global climate conference. 

Mr Bowen said Australia was "by and large on track" to meet its legislated target of reducing emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, despite new figures this week showing flatlining progress in 2024.

Labor approved a 40-year expanded licence to Australia's largest oil and gas project, Western Australia's North West Shelf, in a move criticised by environmental groups.

Mr Bowen said the decision by Environment Minister Murray Watt was made according to the "very strict criteria of the environmental approvals legislation", which does not allow consideration of emissions impacts and which Labor has so far failed to reform. 

Australia just approved Woodside's gas project until 2070. How could it happen? 31st May 2025

 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-31/woodside-north-west-shelf-approval-did-not-consider-climate/105347716

The Australian government's decision to increase gas mining in WA for the next 45 years did not consider cultural and environmental impact, global warming and climate change.

"Suddenly, a project which is now allowed to go ahead until 2070, it's going to ring alarm bells in a very, very, very big way."

Some weeks more than others, climate change really bears down on Australians.

This week, the news carried images of eerie orange skies as dust storms whipped across landscapes dried from record-breaking droughts. Further north, homes were submerged in floods exacerbated by heavier rain from a warmer climate.

And also this week, the Australian government approved the extension of one of the world's largest gas facilities until 2070.

But this decision isn't about climate change.

At least not under Australia's current laws, where the climate harm from fossil fuel projects doesn't have to be considered.

How can Australia approve a fossil fuel mega-project that will run until 20 years after the world is meant to reach net zero emissions?

"I think the average punter out there is basically saying, 'Hang on, this is about climate change and 2070, what are we doing? What in the hell are we doing?'" lamented Greg Bourne from the Climate Council.

The North West Shelf is already Australia's third-highest emitting facility in the country, producing about 6 million tonnes of greenhouse gas each year.

That's just the direct emissions from extracting and processing the gas and doesn't count emissions after the gas is sold, shipped, and burnt at its final destination.

Some estimates put the total lifetime emissions from this project at the equivalent of a decade of Australia's current emissions.

A decade. Think of it as pushing out Australia's climate goals by another 10 years.

It's not just climate experts warning that the world needs to stop expanding fossil fuels: the International Energy Agency says there is enough existing coal, oil, and gas projects to supply the world and stay the course to net zero.

Woodside approval paves the way for the mother of all climate battles

Photo shows Woodside future - North Rankin

When all the hype and the fury are stripped away, the decision to extend the life of the gigantic North West Shelf LNG plant boils down to one thing — enabling the Browse gas project off the Kimberley coast.

"The world is awash in gas, primarily coming out from the Middle East, but lots coming out from America and so on like that. I think our Australian companies fool themselves into thinking that they're going to be the last company standing, pushing gas out there,"

"Climate change is one of the most significant challenges facing the global community and one of the greatest threats to Australia's way of life.

"It is time to act. It is time for procrastination to end … We cannot any longer afford to be complacent on this issue."

Woodside's North West Shelf approval just a stepping stone to enable Browse project - 27th May 2025

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05-29/woodside-nw-shelf-approval-to-enable-browse-basin-development-/105344468

When all the hype and the fury is stripped away, the decision to extend the life of the gigantic North West Shelf gas plant boils down to one thing.

"It's really all about Browse," says RISC Advisory boss Martin Wilkes in relation to the huge gas field off the Kimberley coast of Western Australia.

Browse is one of the country's biggest untapped resources projects, with gas reserves large enough to meet the equivalent of Australia's entire domestic demand for almost 20 years.

To the Western Australian government and the state's industry, it represents energy security, jobs and billions of dollars of investment.

And for some of the world's biggest oil and gas companies — not to mention Australia's flag-bearer, Woodside — Browse presents as the last great hurrah for the country's gas export industry.

Browse is likely to be the mother-of-all environmental fights — a pivotal clash between those seeking an end to new fossil fuel mega-project and those in the opposite corner.

 Climate groups have labelled Browse a "carbon bomb", claiming the project could lead to emissions of up to 1.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent over its lifetime — an amount three times Australia's annual pollution output.

 

By piping Browse gas 900 kilometres south and processing it through the North West Shelf, he says Woodside would avoid the need for a new LNG plant that would come at huge cost.

 

Broome to get big solar farm and six hour battery to replace gas and diesel contract - 16th May 2025

 The remote pearling and tourism town of Broome – in the northwest of Western Australia – is to have its current supply of fossil fuel generation largely replaced by a large solar farm and six-hour big battery, under proposals unveiled by the state-owned Horizon power.
The plans include a 90 megawatt (MW) solar farm, supported by a 42 MW, 239 MWh battery, and associated network infrastructure.
It is designed to replace the current power contract that relies on gas and diesel for the town of 15,000 people, more than 2,000 kms north of Perth. It says the new renewable based system will be cheaper, cleaner, more reliable and offer more economic opportunities.  (source: https://reneweconomy.com.au/)

The details of the proposal – first flagged several years ago – are revealed in an application to the state Environmental Protection Agency, and while not the first remote town to feature solar and a big battery, it appears to be one of the biggest of its type in Australia, if not the biggest.

Horizon Power says the Future Energy System (FES) in Broome will ensure security of energy supply to Broome after the expiry of the existing power purchase agreement, and will result in higher renewables and a reduction in one million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the assumed 20-year lifetime of the project.

Wind energy had been considered, but Horizon says it was rejected because the wind resource was not considered strong, and because of the risk of cyclones.

It also cited the remoteness – high maintenance, logistics, supply issues – higher capital cost compared to solar, and environmental impacts to aerial fauna and the challenge of obtaining environmental and regulatory approvals.

The new solar and battery facility will replace the contract with the existing Broome power station, owned by EDL, which includes 17 small gas generators, and nine back-up diesel generators, with a total of 42 MW. There are more than two dozen different generators because of the varying consumer patterns, and the need for back-up.

Horizon says extending the gas and diesel contract would risk high supply costs, reduced reliability (because of fuel supply chain disruptions), and higher emissions, as well as missed economic opportunities in a renewable transition.

The Broome Clean Energy Report, commissioned by Environs Kimberley and produced by Sustainable Energy Now in 2023, estimated that more than 80 per cent of Broome’s electricity generation could be achieved with renewable energy at three quarters of the price of gas-fired generation.

“Many towns in the Kimberley are powered by high emission fossil fuels such as diesel and gas. In Broome, Horizon Power currently purchases power from an independent power producer,” the application says.

“The power purchase agreement (PPA) is due to expire, providing Horizon Power with an opportunity to integrate gridscale renewable electricity into the town supply.”

It says the final design of the project may change before a final investment decision is made.

The proposals includes a 16 kms transmission line, either underground or overhead, that will follow Broome Cape Leveque Road, Broome Highway, Old Broome Road and Fredrick Street to connect the solar PV and BESS to the existing substation on Fredrick Street in Broome.